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Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T06:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36050/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption and subsequent M2.0 flare from from Active Region 13939 (S17E30) starting around 2024-12-29T04:40Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed around the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery at this time as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 65.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 1256 UTC
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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The halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 06:12 UTC December 29 has been further analysed, It is likely associated with the M2 flare (SIDC flare 3113) at 04:30 UTC December 29 from SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939). An eruption and dimming can be seen in the south-east of the solar disk seen in SUVI 305 images around 05:00 UTC. This CME is deemed to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival time of late on December 31.
A second faint partial halo CME directed to the east was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 18:12 UTC on December 29, associated with a on disk dimming and eruption visible in the south-east quadrant also near SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) in SUVI 94 and 305 imagery around 16:40 UTC. Although faint and difficult to estimate the speed this CME, it is also determined to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival on January 01.
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

Lead Time: 26.62 hour(s)
Difference: -4.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-30T13:07Z

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